ROAD AND RIVER TRANSPORT IN CENTRAL YAKUTIA,
EAST SIBERIA, RUSSIA
Climate impact indicators
Global essential climate variables/indicators used
Bias-adjusted essential climate variable data (air temperature and precipitation on daily time scale) for historical and future periods, RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, available in the CDS.
Regional/local indicators used and produced
Local meteorological measurements, ground thawing and freezing depths, river ice break-up and freeze-up dates, river ice thickness, ground temperature, water and ice content, landscape, land use, soil and vegetation information.
Global data to regional/local scale
Step 1: Local data collection. Long-term historical time-series starting in the 1950s’ of meteorological measurements (air temperature and precipitation on daily time scale), river ice observations (thickness, break-up and freeze-up dates), and measurements of ground temperature and thawing and freezing depths for typical permafrost landscapes were collected from hydro-meteorological and permafrost monitoring stations in Central Yakutia.
Landscape, land use, soil and vegetation cover maps, and digital elevation models were compiled from national and international databases.
Stakeholder needs were collected from regional road and river transport authorities.
Step 2: Global data collection and adaption. Essential climate variable data (air temperature and precipitation on daily time scale) used as input to the local impact models for historical and future periods were developed within the C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI contract ,including the HydroGFD reference data (1961-2015) and the ensembles of bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model outputs (1951-2100), available in the CDS.
Step 3: Data analysis. Trend analysis and quality control of local observational data (river ice conditions (break-up and freeze-up dates and ice thickness), ground temperature and ground thawing and freezing depth in typical landscapes) were performed.
Quality control of the data collected in step2 was also performed and the data to be used for future climate scenarios were defined: the HydroGFD reference data and the bias-corrected CMIP5 ensembles were compared with the locally observed air temperature and precipitation to assess adequateness of the global data for local scale.
Step 4: Local impact model simulations and CIIs production. Local applications of the hydrological models Hydrograph and HYPE were setup for simulation of ground temperature and river ice conditions in typical permafrost landscapes in Central Yakutia, and for 7 official river ice road crossings of the Lena, Aldan, and Vilyuy rivers, respectively.
Model input data and parameters were adjusted using the local information and observational data obtained in step1 to improve the ability of the models to represent the historical conditions.
The local impact model simulations and CIIs production covered a historical reference period (1971-2001) and three future 30-year periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) representing the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The uncertainty in the calculated CIIs were represented by the spread generated from variation within the ensemble of bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model data used as input to the impact models.
Step 5: Communication and dissemination. CIIs for future and historical periods based on both observations and impact model simulations are disseminated to the public through the interactive climate atlas. A more in-depth analysis of the results is being compiled and presented to the local stakeholders through face-to-face meetings and written communication, including assessment of uncertainty of CIIs, recommendations for optimal operational period of ice road and ferry at Yakutsk, assessment of road stability due to ground thawing and freezing in typical landscapes in Central Yakutia in present and future.