ALGAL BLOOMS IN THE GREAT LAKES OF NORTH AMERICA
Climate impact indicators
Global essential climate variables/indicators used
Daily precipitation, minimum, and maximum temperature will be used to run the impact models. Growing season and drought indicators are also needed to help with the mitigation and management development.
Regional/local indicators used and produced
Table 1 here shows the CIIs to be produced for Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), as ranked in importance by the stakeholder.
Step 1: Acquire, downscale and bias correct needed data; develop tools to process data from CDS.
Step 2: Calibrate and verify hydrological (HYPE and SWAT) models to historical data; compare and evaluate the performance of the SWAT and HYPE models in simulating flow, sediments, and nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in Lake Erie watersheds. Create different land/agricultural management scenarios (BMPs).
Step 3: Produce local primary CII from climate data
Step 4: Produce local secondary CII for land surface (water quality and quantity) from the SWAT and HYPE models.
Step 5: Produce local secondary CII for Lake Erie western basin. Link the flow, sediment, nutrient, and climate data to algal bloom models (e.g. from NOAA); predict the extent of harmful algal bloom in the Lake Erie western basin at these climate and landscape management scenarios.
Step 6: Assess the impact of nutrient and sediment load reduction efficiencies of the above landscape management scenarios at difference climate scenarios on the local secondary CIIs.