WATER RESOURCES AND AGRICULTURE IN WESTERN INDIA
Climate impact indicators
Global essential climate variables/indicators used
Climate change indicators including the historical maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, soil moisture, and water temperature indicators shall be used/developed to understand the change during the baseline period. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) corresponding to various time scales shall also be developed for estimating the meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics.
Regional/local indicators used and produced
Climate data from an ensemble of GCM’s shall be used directly to calculate local/regional indicators, and to drive models to derive future stream flow and other indicators for the assessment of the expected impacts due to climate change on the water sector and agriculture sector in the study area.
Global data to regional/local scale
After learning the methodology for bias adjustment, the GCM data shall be adjusted to regional/ local scale and the climate impact indicators developed for the study area.
Step 1: Ensemble climate variables pertaining to 19 GCMs. List and downloading instructions provided by SMHI. Data pertaining to all the GCMs shall be used for further analysis.
Step 2: The bias-adjustment techniques shall be used to correct the bias in the downscaled GCM data sets based on the historical baseline data.
Step 3: The adjusted climate variables shall be used directly as indicators for the assessment of future climate change impacts. The data shall also be used to derive other indicators including drought indicators (SPI for various time-scales). The data will be used to drive a simple hydrological model to obtain the future stream flows and water availability. Finally some other agriculture related CIIs may be calculated, if required by stakeholders.
Step 4: The spatial - temporal variability of the climate variables shall be mapped and used to understand the variability in the climate data in future time horizons.
Step 5: Adaptation measures for the agriculture and water sector shall be envisaged based on the changes in the CIIs and reported back to the stakeholders.